According to a worst-case scenario considered by Government officials, the UK could face shortages of some foods by the summer, including chicken and pork, if the war with Iran continues and disruption worsens.
A Government source told the BBC that ministers and officials were planning for the possibility of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, alongside disruption to carbon dioxide supplies. CO2 is used in parts of the food chain, including the slaughter of some animals and food preservation, making it an important part of UK supply systems.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital route for global oil and gas shipments. Since the US and Israel launched major strikes on Iran, the Iranian Government has effectively shut the waterway, pushing up the cost of petrol, diesel and fertiliser.
A spokesperson for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said the Government would continue working closely with businesses to manage the impact of the conflict. Business Secretary, Peter Kyle, said CO2 shortages were not a concern “at this moment”.
Food industry groups have struck a more cautious tone, with many saying price rises are a more immediate risk than empty shelves. The British Retail Consortium said retailers were used to handling supply chain disruption and expected contingency planning from the Government.
However, pressure is already building. The Food and Drink Federation has forecast food inflation could reach 9% by December, while the Agricultural Industries Confederation has warned about rising fertiliser costs. The National Farmers’ Union has also said prices for tomatoes, cucumbers, milk and other crops could rise in the coming months.
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